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 Monday Morning Outlook
May 2013
5/20/2013Still Bullish
5/13/2013It's Not That Bad Out There
5/6/2013The QE-xcuse
April 2013
4/29/2013More Plow Horse Ahead
4/22/2013Guess What? Growth is Back!
4/15/2013Keynes And Retail Sales
4/8/2013Stockman's Sky is Falling
4/1/2013The "V" Is Complete
March 2013
3/25/2013Housing Recovery Still Young
3/18/2013Say "Thanks" to Barney Frank
3/11/2013The Plow Horse is Trotting
3/4/2013Rising Interest Rates Won't Cause Fiscal Armageddon
February 2013
2/25/2013Fed Will Make Excuses About Inflation
2/19/2013Don't Fear the Sequester
2/11/2013There the Bears Go Again
2/4/2013Optimism Is Winning
January 2013
1/28/2013Defending Mickelson
1/22/2013Ignore the GDP Headline
1/14/2013Dow 15,500
1/7/2013Outlook for 2013
December 2012
12/31/2012More Growth: Thank the Entrepreneur
12/21/2012Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/17/2012Fed Talks Louder, To Little Avail
12/10/2012Is QE4 Really Coming?
12/3/2012Temporary Weakness Won't Last
November 2012
11/26/2012Consumers Plow Ahead
11/19/2012The Cliff Ain't So Bad
11/12/2012Leaning Left
11/5/2012Election Matters, But Stocks are Cheap
October 2012
10/29/2012Velocity, Uncertainty & the Economy
10/22/2012More Plow Horse
10/15/2012The Romney Tax Plan
10/8/2012Thelma, Louise and the Fiscal Cliff
10/1/2012Recession Risk Rising
September 2012
9/24/2012Housing Recovery Still Young
9/17/2012QE3, For Now
9/10/2012Better Policy, Better Recovery
9/4/2012Still No Recession in Sight
August 2012
8/27/2012Still No QE3
8/20/2012Lengthen the Debt
8/13/2012The Romney-Ryan Achilles Heel
8/6/2012Why the Long Face?
July 2012
7/30/2012Heads, I Win, Tails, You Lose
7/23/2012Slow in Q2, But No Recession
7/16/2012Stocks are Really Cheap
7/9/2012Unemployment a Secular Problem
7/2/2012Freedom and Health
June 2012
6/25/2012The Second Step: Supreme Court
6/18/2012Should Germany Leave the Euro?
6/11/2012Bet Against QE3
6/4/2012Speeding Up the Plow Horse
May 2012
5/29/2012Is Obama a Big Spender?
5/21/2012The Plow Horse Rolls On
5/14/2012Let's Stress Test Governments
5/7/2012Dead Cat Bounce for Socialism
April 2012
4/30/2012Here We Go Again
4/23/2012The Plow Horse Economy
4/16/2012Still "On Your Own"
4/9/2012"On Your Own" Economics
4/2/2012Supremes Hear No Limiting Principle
March 2012
3/26/2012Heard the One About a "Fiscal Cliff"?
3/19/2012The Fed's March Madness
3/12/2012The Bears' Five Stages of Grief
3/5/2012Vive La France?
February 2012
2/27/2012Don’t Bet on a Correction
2/21/2012Stocks Rising, But Still Cheap
2/13/2012Be Confident in the Recovery
2/6/2012Despite Naysayers, The Recovery Is Real
January 2012
1/30/2012Fed Forecasts Depend on Data
1/23/2012Rally Not Built on Complacency
1/17/2012Q4 GDP - No Recession In Sight
1/9/2012Nonsense Arguments About Jobs
1/3/2012We Were Too Optimistic
December 2011
12/27/2011Was the 2011 Economy a Miracle?
12/19/2011Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/12/2011Obama's 8%: Sounds Right
12/5/2011Economy Improving, Stocks Cheap
November 2011
11/28/2011Occupy The Shopping Mall
11/21/2011What's So Special About America
11/14/2011Don't Fret the Foreign Stuff
11/7/2011Time to Raise the "Natural Rate"
October 2011
10/31/2011What's Going Right?
10/24/2011The Consumer Is Not Dead
10/17/2011Solid 3.5% Growth in Q3
10/10/2011The Economic Twilight Zone
10/3/2011Forecasts, Confidence and Facts
September 2011
9/26/2011A Whiff of Volcker
9/19/2011No Recession, No Panic
9/12/2011The Long Run is Now
9/6/2011Want Jobs? Have Faith.
August 2011
8/29/2011Stocks Undervalued by 65%
8/22/2011Europe, Not a Repeat of 2008
8/15/2011Fed Looking in Wrong Tool Shed
8/8/2011Focus on the Economy
8/1/2011GDP: Not As Bad As It Seems
July 2011
7/25/2011Hysteria and the Debt Debate
7/18/2011Looking Past a Weak Q2
7/11/2011Jobs Versus Government
7/5/2011Hasta La Vista, Soft Patch
June 2011
6/27/2011No, The US Is Not Greece
6/20/2011Inflation Now and Later
6/13/2011Soft Patch Already Fading
6/6/2011Economic Rapture?
May 2011
5/31/2011The "Unreal" Debate About Reality
5/23/2011Don't Sweat "Soft Patch II"
5/16/2011Public Policy Looking Better
5/9/2011Bulls Versus Bears, Again
5/2/2011Bernanke and the Teflon Fed
April 2011
4/25/2011The Greatest Speculators
4/18/2011GDP at 2%: Seventh Consecutive Quarter of Growth
4/11/2011Are Consumers Ignoring Soaring Commodity Prices?
4/4/2011The Taylor Rule Is Wrong
March 2011
3/28/2011The Shorts Get Whipsawed by the VIX
3/21/2011Japan, "Supply Shocks" and Money
3/14/2011It's A Natural Disaster, Not A Black Swan
3/7/2011Who Gets Credit For the Recovery?
February 2011
2/28/2011Stay Positive - It's The Right Thing To Do
2/22/2011Debt Limit Brinksmanship
2/14/2011The Federal Budget: It's a Mess
2/7/2011FASB Surrenders - America Wins
January 2011
1/31/2011Egypt, Dollars and History
1/24/2011US Politics - Cage Match Or Pillow Fight?
1/18/2011China and the Dollar
1/10/2011Government, the Anti-Stimulus
1/3/20112011: Dow 14,500, S&P 1575, 10-Year 4%
December 2010
12/27/2010First Trust Sees 4% Real GDP Growth in 2011
12/20/2010Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
12/13/2010It's A Good Deal
12/6/2010Elections Have Consequences
November 2010
11/29/2010It's a Self-Sustaining Recovery
11/22/2010Something to be Thankful For
11/15/2010Stocks Are Cheap, Bonds Are Not
11/8/2010No Soft Patch, No Excuse for QEII
11/1/2010Political Economics
October 2010
10/25/2010Beating Bridgewater's Big Bear Bet
10/18/2010Fed Ignores Gold, Targets Higher Inflation, and Plays With Fire
10/11/2010No More Steroids Needed
10/4/2010Emancipation From What...Capitalism?
September 2010
9/27/2010The Myth and Mistake of Quantitative Easing
9/20/2010Be Careful of the New Normal
9/13/2010Unfunded Liabilities and Cheap Stocks
9/7/2010President Obama's Best Gift to Labor
August 2010
8/30/2010Odds Brightening for Tax Cut Extension
8/23/2010We Knew Ronald Reagan…and He’s No Reagan
8/16/2010Politics and Pessimists
8/9/2010Please - No More Stimulus
8/2/2010GDP Data - Better than the Spin Suggests
July 2010
7/26/2010The Good, Bad and Ugly of Austerity
7/19/2010"New Normal" Nowhere in Sight
7/12/2010Trade Deficits As Far As the Eye Can See
7/6/2010Get Real - This is Not 1932
June 2010
6/28/2010Feds Spin Wheels on Financial Regulation
6/21/2010China Rising
6/14/2010Disagreeing With Laffer About 2011
6/7/2010Has America Forgotten the Fruits of Freedom?
6/1/2010FASB Fanatics At It Again
May 2010
5/24/2010Dr. Copper and the Pessimists
5/17/2010A Shift in Our Fed Rate Outlook
5/10/2010Wall Street Dips, Main Street Turns the Corner
5/3/2010Triumph of the Euro?
April 2010
4/26/2010The Danger of Zero Percent Interest Rates
4/19/2010Higher Inflation, Not Hyperinflation
4/12/2010All Aboard the V-Train
4/5/2010No Double-Dip for Housing
March 2010
3/29/2010Gary Becker's Optimism
3/22/2010Health Care Fallout
3/15/2010More Solid Growth Ahead
3/8/2010More on That Federal Pay Cut
3/1/2010Getting Serious About the Deficit
February 2010
2/22/2010Don't Be An Economic Hypochondriac
2/16/2010Greece is Not Lehman Brothers
2/8/2010It's a V-Shaped Recovery: Not "Trudging"
2/1/2010It’s Not the 1930s Again
January 2010
1/25/2010Financial Reform – Let's Do the Right Thing
1/19/2010Stop. Turn around. Don’t Head for the Hills
1/11/2010Even France Has Recoveries
1/4/2010Wrong Way Bernanke
December 2009
12/28/2009Stocks Are Still Cheap
12/21/2009Who are the Real "Fat Cat" Innkeepers?
12/14/2009It’s Not the Government’s Recovery
12/7/2009Government – The Biggest Bubble Of Them All
November 2009
11/30/2009Conservative Inconsistency and TARP
11/23/2009Upside Down and Backwards
11/16/2009Keep Your Eye on "Cash Inflation"
11/9/2009Two Views of the Jobs Picture
11/2/2009Ben Bernanke: The Real Pay Czar
October 2009
10/26/2009Not So Unequal, After All
10/19/2009Hold Onto Your Hats: Strong GDP Reports on the Way
10/12/2009A Simple Win-Win for Investors and the Government
10/5/2009Not So Disappointing
September 2009
9/28/2009Das Supply-Side
9/21/2009Framework for More Government
9/14/2009An Immaculate Recovery, This is Not
9/8/2009Education, Entrepreneurship, And The President
August 2009
8/31/2009Fed Must Act Soon
8/24/2009Congress is the Clunker
8/17/2009Stock Rally and Economic Recovery: Not "Sugar Highs"
8/10/2009The Economy is Improving, No Thanks to Stimulus
8/3/2009Let's Tax DC Windfall Gains
July 2009
7/27/2009Suspend Mark-to-Market, Before It Does More Harm
7/20/2009The Shorts Are On the Run
7/13/2009How Can We Be So Optimistic About Growth?
7/6/2009Yes Job Losses Hurt, But the Recovery Is Still on Track
June 2009
6/29/2009Michael Jackson: A Lesson in Economics
6/22/2009The Overrated Unwinding
6/15/2009Emotional Forecasts
6/8/2009Back to September
6/1/2009Bank Lending Will Lag the Recovery, Not Lead
May 2009
5/26/2009It's Still AAA
5/18/2009Reappoint Bernanke
5/11/2009Bad Logic
5/4/2009Recession Is Over; No More Shoes to Drop
April 2009
4/27/2009First Quarter GDP: Don't Judge A Book By Its Cover
4/20/2009Tea Party Economics
4/13/2009The Bouncing Balls of History
4/6/2009Easy Money Will End Recession
March 2009
3/30/2009Government Gone Wild
3/23/2009Inflation: Don't Forgetaboutit...It's Still A Huge Problem
3/16/2009Velocity Returns
3/9/2009"Rosy Scenario" Hides Irresponsible Spending
3/2/2009Is it the Economy or the Policies?
February 2009
2/23/2009Don’t Nationalize; Suspend Mark-to-Market
2/17/2009The Economy and Market Can Rise, Despite Government Mistakes
2/9/2009Mark-to-Market Reform; More Important Than Stimulus
2/2/2009Seismic Indicators Sense Some Inner Rumblings
January 2009
1/26/2009Headed to Havana?
1/20/2009Big Bad Bank
1/12/2009No Vicious Consumer Cycle
1/5/2009Circling the Wagons
December 2008
12/29/2008Stocks are Dirt Cheap
12/22/2008Things to Be Thankful For
12/15/2008We Are the Catalyst
12/8/2008Obama: Try Spending Surge, Because "Deficits Don’t Matter"
12/1/2008Black Friday Shoppers Signal Consumer Hopefulness
November 2008
11/24/2008The Right Direction, For Now
11/17/2008Darkest Before the Dawn
11/10/2008Unintended Consequences
11/3/2008Fiscal Stimulus, Just Say No
October 2008
10/27/2008Paving the Road to France
10/20/2008Expect a "V" Shaped Recovery
10/13/2008FASB Pivots on Mark-to-Market
10/6/2008Cut to 1%; Now!
September 2008
9/29/2008Psychology and the Economy
9/22/2008Here's A Plan to Avoid a New RTC
9/15/2008Gales of Punitive Destruction
9/8/2008Mark-to-Market Now Mark-to-Taxpayer
9/2/2008Incomes Up, Inequality Down
August 2008
8/25/2008Long Term Trend Still Bullish
8/18/2008Commodity Price Slide Not a Good Reason to Postpone Rate Hikes
8/11/2008What Hath The Fed Wrought?
8/4/2008GDP Report "Mis-Underestimated"
July 2008
7/28/2008Stocks: The Only Game in Town?
7/21/2008Growth Was Solid in Q2
7/14/2008Don't Forget Government Failure
7/7/2008Where Does Inflation Come From?
June 2008
6/30/2008Freedom and Optimism
6/23/2008Commodity Peak, Dollar Bottom
6/16/2008The Phantom Recession is Already Over
6/9/2008No Oil Recession
6/2/2008Cap and Trade Trap
May 2008
5/27/2008Bubble Trouble
5/19/2008Yes, We Have No Bananas
5/12/2008Deficit Rising, But Tax Hikes Not Warranted
5/5/2008Economic Fundamentals Say No Recession
April 2008
4/28/2008Still No Recession
4/21/2008Monday Morning Outlook - A Stronger Dollar Requires Tighter Money
4/14/2008More Inflation: On Its Way
4/7/2008Still at Dow 15000
March 2008
3/31/2008Are the Investment Tax Cuts Going to Expire?
3/24/2008Government Failure, Or Market Failure?
3/17/2008Another Ride on the Fed's Asset-Centric Rollercoaster
3/10/2008Shrinking Payrolls Mean Sluggish Growth, Not Recession
3/3/2008Economy Remains Resilient in Q1
February 2008
2/25/2008Inflation Denial
2/19/2008Unnecessary and Artificial Stimulus
2/11/2008Traders, Investors and Economists
2/4/2008Hung Jury
January 2008
1/28/2008A Super Bowl Week for Economic Data
1/22/2008Dow 15,000
1/14/2008Bad Mood about the Economy Unwarranted
1/7/2008Recession Fears Still Misplaced
December 2007
12/31/2007The Big Picture
12/24/2007Markets Bend, Economy Stays Strong
12/17/2007The Fed is Wrong, Not Incompetent
12/10/2007A Mortgage Bailout?
12/3/2007Expect the Unexpected
November 2007
11/26/2007You Gotta Believe
11/19/2007Dollar Danger
11/12/2007Energizer Bunny Economy - Take Two
11/5/2007Despite Fear: Economy Still Strong
October 2007
10/29/2007Strong Growth in the Third Quarter
10/22/2007U.S. Stocks Remain Undervalued
10/15/2007Payroll Growth: The 1990s Versus the 2000s
10/8/2007The Consumer Will Not Fade
10/1/2007The Economy's Not Landing, It's Taking Off
September 2007
9/24/2007TIPS: A 'Vanity Mirror' for the Fed?
9/17/2007Keeping Our Fingers Crossed For a Hard Money Fed
9/10/2007Unnecessary Rate Cut...On Its Way?
9/4/2007Solid Growth Continues in the Third Quarter
August 2007
8/27/2007The Labor Market Will Weather the Mortgage Storm
8/20/2007Bernanke Resists "Hair of the Dog"
8/13/2007Rate Cuts Would Increase Recession Risk
8/6/2007No More Greenspan Put
July 2007
7/30/2007GDP Revisions Suggest Healthy Growth Ahead
7/23/2007Second Quarter GDP
7/16/2007Dow 14,500
7/9/2007Discipline and Fundamentals Beat Uncertainty
7/2/2007Supreme Economics
June 2007
6/25/2007Consumers Resilient - Don’t Buy the Tapped Out Story
6/18/2007The Bond Bubble Bursts
6/11/2007Don’t Fear Higher Wages
6/4/2007The Construction Job Mystery
May 2007
5/29/2007Don't Get Complacent About Inflation
5/21/2007Dollar Crash, Not in the Cards
5/14/2007The Economic Rebound Is Already Underway
5/7/2007After the Pause, a Refreshing Rebound
April 2007
4/30/2007Revenue Blow Out
4/23/2007Dow 14,000 Remains on Tap
4/16/2007Inflation is Much Worse Than Fed Tightening
4/9/2007Pushing Back Our Rate Hike
4/2/2007Monday Morning Outlook: Bernanke Wants Higher Long-term Interest Rates
March 2007
3/26/2007Inflation and the Fed
3/19/2007The Lion that Squeaked
3/12/2007Back to the Future
3/5/2007It's Not the Economy
February 2007
2/26/2007Germany: A One-Year Wonder?
2/20/2007Saving Grace
2/12/2007Bernanke Goes to the Hill
2/5/2007No Need for Tax Hikes, Surplus on Tap for 2009
January 2007
1/29/2007Productivity, Goldilocks, and Inflation
1/22/2007Ice Cold Water at Davos
1/16/2007Don't Worry About the Inverted Yield Curve
1/8/2007The Bronco Nation
1/2/2007Gerald Ford: Nightmare Fighter
December 2006
12/26/2006A New Year Cometh
12/18/2006Is It Goldilocks, or Not?
12/11/2006Comfort Food
12/4/2006The Shrinking Dollar
November 2006
11/27/2006The Consumer Lives
11/20/2006So Long Uncle Milty
11/13/2006It Was A “Thumpin”
11/6/2006Uncertainty Everywhere
October 2006
10/30/2006A Pause in Growth and Questionable Polls
10/23/2006Let the Voting Begin
10/16/2006The Tigers are Back, The Economy is Still Strong
10/9/2006Job Growth Strong or Weak?
10/2/2006Productivity, Profits Strong, Stocks Making New Highs
September 2006
9/25/2006Fed Ease in 2007?
9/18/2006Soft, Hard, or Any Landing at All?
9/11/2006Commodities Drop, But Inflation Still Here
9/5/2006Changing Times Are Challenging Times
August 2006
8/28/2006Policy and Economic Denial
8/21/2006Real Wages, the Economy, and Politics
8/14/2006Don’t Try So Hard, Have Faith
8/7/2006Monday Morning Fed Watching
July 2006
7/31/2006Has the Economy Been Taking Steroids?
7/24/2006The US Economy is Wearing Yellow
7/17/2006Don't Fear the "R" Word
7/10/2006Tax Cuts, Budget Deficits and the Economy
7/3/2006Hard Money, Low Taxes
June 2006
6/26/2006The Fed is on the Mound, Stocks Are Undervalued
6/19/2006Market-Based Indicators and the Fed
6/12/2006Is the Economy Really Slowing Down?
6/5/2006It’s Not the Eighth Inning Yet
May 2006
5/30/2006Nominal GDP, the Fed and Nirvana
5/22/2006Stagflation Fears Create Buying Opportunity
5/15/2006Pausing Now Would be a Mistake
5/1/2006The Boom Continues
April 2006
4/24/2006Oil, the Economy, and Inflation
4/17/2006Deficits: Do They Matter?
4/10/2006The Conundrum Unwinds Rapidly
4/3/2006The Canary in the Coal Mine
March 2006
3/27/2006Pessimism, Optimisim and Freedom
3/20/2006Capitalism, Profits, and the Wage Gap
3/13/2006The Real Threats to the Economy
3/6/2006Are Bonds Finally Recognizing Reality?
February 2006
2/27/2006Monetary Policy Misunderstanding
2/21/2006Growth and Taxes
2/13/2006Greenspan Casts a Shadow
2/6/2006A Long Way From the Edge
 
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