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Bob Carey
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  Preferreds Offer Yield Spreads Similar To Speculative-Grade Debt
Posted Under: Sectors

 
View from the Observation Deck

  1. The chart provides a comprehensive snapshot of how preferreds have fared over the past five years. The period captures the start of the financial crisis through 4/30/12.
  2. Over 80% of publicly traded preferred securities are issued by financial institutions.
  3. Prior to the financial crisis, preferred securities have historically offered investors a yield spread of 100-250 basis points over the benchmark 10-Yr. T-Note (see yields from 4/30/07). That spread was 493 basis points on 4/30/12.    
  4. The Merrill Lynch U.S. Preferred Stock Fixed Rate Index carries a BBB2 credit rating (investment-grade), yet its yield spread (493 bps over 10-Yr. T-Note) more closely resembles that of speculative-grade debt.
  5. The Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II Index carries a B1 rating (speculative-grade) and has a yield spread of 567 basis points over the 10-Yr. T-Note.
  6. While the recovery in the financial sector continues to be a slow and arduous process, preferred securities, in our opinion, offer investors seeking current income an intriguing alternative in today’s climate.
Posted on Thursday, May 03, 2012 @ 5:09 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  Biotech Pipelines and “Pharmerging Markets” offer Growth Potential
Posted Under: Sectors

 

View from the Observation Deck

  1. Global pharmaceutical sales by PhRMA member companies totaled an estimated $295.5 billion in 2011 (see chart), with 38% occurring outside the U.S. In 2006, that figure was 30%.
  2. These nations followed the U.S.’s 62% share of global sales (by PhRMA members): Japan (4.6%); France (3.3%); Germany (2.7%); Italy (2.3%); and Canada (2.3%).
  3. So-called “Big Pharma” is looking to expand heavily into emerging markets (“pharmerging”), particularly in Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRICs), where governments are investing more in health care. (IMAP, Inc.)
  4. In 2010, the BRIC countries accounted for about 3.5% of total global sales. (PhRMA)
  5. Approximately $89.5 billion worth of branded pharmaceuticals are scheduled to lose patent protection between 2009 and 2014. Generic sales are expected to grow from $107.8 billion in 2009 to $129.3 billion in 2014. (IMAP, Inc.)
  6. Biologic sales, on the other hand, are expected to grow by $41 billion between 2009 and 2014. (IMAP, Inc.)
  7. The fastest way for a drug company to acquire new medicines is through mergers and acquisitions and through licensing agreements, in our opinion.
  8. In 2012, some drug companies have been willing to pay premiums 71%, on average, above a biotechnology company’s average 20-day stock price (deals > $500 million in 2012) to acquire them. (Bloomberg)
Posted on Tuesday, May 01, 2012 @ 4:32 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  The Markets Fight Through the Headlines
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary Video
Bob Carey's commentary focuses on the strength of companies' earnings this quarter and how investors need to consider the facts not the headlines.
Posted on Monday, April 30, 2012 @ 1:08 PM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended April 27, 2012
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Treasury prices were virtually unchanged on the week as positive earnings from US companies continue to be contrasted with European debt concerns. Yields were modestly lower on Monday but all movement was reversed on Tuesday as prices dropped slightly lower on mixed US housing data and as the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 69.2 versus the expected 69.9. Treasuries were little changed Wednesday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated his commitment to low interest rates without confirming or eliminating the possibility of more quantitative easing. Prices moved up on Thursday as S&P downgraded Spain’s long-term credit rating. US economic data was positive as initial jobless claims and pending home sales were better than anticipated. Treasuries were unchanged on Friday as both personal consumption and consumer confidence were higher than expected, but 1Q GDP grew only at a 2.2% rate versus the projected 2.5%.Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for next week include: Monday: March Personal Income (+0.3%), March Personal Spending (+0.4%), April Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (60.5) and April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (8.0); Tuesday: April ISM Manufacturing (53.0), April Total and Domestic Vehicle Sales (14.4M and 11.1M); Wednesday: March Factory Orders (-1.5); Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (379,000); Friday: April Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (165,000), April Change in Private Payrolls (170,000) and April Unemployment Rate (8.2%).
Posted on Monday, April 30, 2012 @ 8:30 AM • Post Link Share: 
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  US Stocks Week Ended April 27, 2012
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Last week’s market still seemed focused on issues in Spain and greater Europe as they seek an answer to their debt situation. In addition, S&P downgraded the debt of Spain’s sovereign credit. The United Kingdom further increased worries when it announced that GDP contracted in the first three months, officially putting the country into a recession. The highlight of last week’s market was Apple and the company’s surprisingly strong earnings. The company announced that it sold 35.1 million iPhones for the quarter, up 88% from the previous year. The company also reported that it has sold more than double the amount of iPads from the previous year. CEO, Tim Cook attributed the impressive growth to a strong Chinese market. The stock shot up more than 7% on the news. Opposite of Apple’s earnings were Caterpillar’s. The company had a surprisingly weak quarter, causing analysts to reassess their forecasts. The company sighted significantly weakening demand from the Chinese construction market and announced plans to export excavator production to North America. The North American construction market was a bright spot in an otherwise challenging quarter, the stock fell 4.58% on the earnings announcement. Wal-Mart and its executives found itself embroiled in a corruption scandal. It was alleged that company executives had paid bribes to Mexican officials in an effort to expedite their expansion in the country. Moving ahead, we remain in the heart of earnings season. Companies reporting are McKesson, Pfizer, Emerson Electric, and Chesapeake Energy. Investors will be focused on Chesapeake’s earnings as they endure historically low gas prices. Last week, it was revealed that CEO, Aubrey McClendon, received $1.4 billion in loans from a private equity firm that was looking to buy assets from Chesapeake. Investors will finally get to ask management questions this week.
Posted on Monday, April 30, 2012 @ 8:27 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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