Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $42.4 Billion in August
Posted Under: Data Watch • Trade
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: The trade deficit narrowed in August, coming in at $42.4 billion, a slightly smaller trade deficit than the consensus expected.  Exports rose $0.8 billion while imports declined $0.4 billion, but both imports and exports are up from a year ago: exports by 4.2%, imports by 4.0%.  We see expanded trade with the rest of the world as positive for the global economy, and total trade (imports plus exports) is up 4.1% in the past year.  Look for more of that in the year to come as economic growth accelerates in Europe and Japan.  France's new president Emmanuel Macron is pushing ahead with labor market reforms that should, in turn, make some other European countries follow suit.  Better growth in Europe will increase global trade and US exports as well.  In fact, exports to the EU grew 9% in August and are up 7% in the past year.  In the meantime, international trade is on track to be a very slight positive for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which looks like it will come in around a 3% annual pace in spite of the havoc wreaked by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Trade is one of our four pillars to prosperity; freer trade leads to improved economic growth.  And while we have our qualms with some of the talk coming out of Washington related to paring back free trade, there has been significantly more hot air than substance.  We will watch trade policy as it develops, but don't see any reason yet to be sounding alarm bells.  In other news this morning, new claims for unemployment benefits declined 12,000 last week to 260,000, while continuing claims increased 2,000 to 1.94 million. These numbers do not affect our 65,000 forecast for tomorrow's official report for nonfarm payrolls in September.  Don't be concerned about the slower short-term pace of job growth; it's a temporary dip due to recent hurricanes and should rebound sharply in the months ahead.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Thursday, October 5, 2017 @ 10:32 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.